The electronics industry is gradually recovering, but the market still exist some uncertainties; some people think that 2016 will flourish, people think that there will be more severe recession actually 2016 will is a what kind of? The following is the EETimes for different market segments, to collect some of the forecast information collected by different analysts. Semiconductor market research firm Susie analyst Inouy Databeans
Electronic industry is gradually recovering, but there are still some uncertain factors in the market, some people think that in 2016 will be a thriving, but also some people think that there will be a more severe recession... What 2016 will be what kind? The following is the EETimes for different market segments, to collect some of the forecast information collected by different analysts.
Market research firm databeans analyst Susie Inouye said: "expectedly, the semiconductor market in the United States is the first restoration of years, growing areas, revenue in the third quarter compared to last year over the same period growth of 8%; with time, and the global semiconductor market performance than the same period in 2008 declined 10%." The agency expects the global semiconductor market revenue of $09 for 217 billion years, compared with the annual decline of 13%, while in 2010 the market is expected to grow 17%.
In the field of different products; in the wireless IC part, the third quarter growth rate, although there are signs of slowing down, but Databeans believes that the field will continue to grow to the fourth quarter and early 2016. Overall baseband and RF components revenue estimates that in the fourth quarter will be maintained with the same period last year almost $6.2 billion level, and the first quarter of 2016 and the second quarter can develop continuously, respectively, reached $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion scale.
In the part of PC chips, in the third quarter revenue is the previous quarter growth of 28%, mainly by DRAM prices rose to promote; databeans expects 2009 the market will is the economic recession last year 14%, but 2016 is expected to because the operation terminal equipment demand promotion, and the growth of 16%.
In more breakdown products of the project, the microprocessor revenue in the third quarter on quarter growth of 25%, revenue reached $300 billion; DRAM in the third quarter revenue of $60 billion, compared with the second quarter growth 34%. DRAM market revenue is expected to grow by only 4% in the fourth quarter, but this level has been improved by about 50% over the same period last year, showing that the field in the recession in the deep.
Analysts at HSBC Steven Pelayo said foundry market performance in the fourth quarter, although the flat, but full of advanced process capacity and inventory level of chip manufacturer has apparently under control; manufacturers capital expenditures showed positive growth. However, the agency pointed out that the gross profit margin of EPS (40/45) was slightly lower than expected by the impact of the TSMC nano scale process, the company's current forecast for the company in 2016 remained unchanged.
PC and ODM PC industry
For PC ODM industry, Pelayo expected 5-15% growth in the fourth quarter of notebook computer products shipments; surge drive of replacement in the windows 7 operating system to bring the positive factors, and enterprises under, 2016 notebook computer market is expected to achieve 20% growth rate, which quanta (quanta) performance will be best.
In the brand computer part, the third quarter shipments are expected to be as strong, the fourth quarter of the performance will be flat or growth of 10%. But the longer battery life CULV laptop battery life I am afraid that will not achieve the desired success; most of the views that the market will grow 30% in 2016, the main driving force from emerging markets.
According to the data of iSuppli of market research organization, the Chinese Ash phone (cottage) shipments, it is estimated that in 2015 to reach the scale of 1.45 billion, compared with 2008 1.01 billion growth of 43.6%;, this part of the mobile phone number will reach 12.9% of the global total 11.3 billion legitimate handset. Gray mobile phone market has become too large, which also represents the mobile phone supply chain ignored the huge profits.
TFT LCD equipment spending in 2008 hit new highs, but global economic downturn and industry cycle changes will make the areas of revenue unprecedented encountered in the 2009 recession, the magnitude of the fear of up to 50%; but the market research firm DisplaySearch believes that due to the equipment market recovery ability is very strong, is expected in 2010 again achieved 51% growth.
The analyst Charles Annis said that the worst of the LCD industry has been in the past, panel prices at the end of 2008 to early 2009 fell sharply, but than expected more stimulated demand; and strong demand from the Chinese market and motivate each panel manufacturers plan in 2016 further expansion of production capacity.
But he also said that although most of the LCD materials suppliers and panel makers in the third quarter of 2009 performed well, but now industry came to the a wait-and-see state, on capacity expansion to take a cautious attitude, and is evaluating the global economic boom and LCD market demand recovery status, as well as the development of the Chinese market is as expected.
According to the prediction of the semi analyst Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, 2015 global Fab capacity and will to Japanese companies occupy the largest proportion, up to 26%, followed by Taiwan (19%), United States (18%), South Korea (12%), Europe and the Middle East (12%), China (7%), Southeast Asia (5%).
Above the predicted mean wafer plant in Japan will be in 2010 to maintain a strong position; the local industry of advanced equipment purchases is expected in 2015 will reach $20 billion, in 2016 will grow by about 70%, to reach more than $30 billion in size, power mainly from the production of memory of 12 inches of factories.
Gartner analyst Jim Hines and Alfonso Velosa forecast last year the whole solar market has bid farewell to the haze toward recovery, and there will be optimistic in 2015 and 2016. However, due to the market competitors, especially in the field of solar modules, I am afraid that many suppliers will encounter setbacks, or have to explain the reasons for the shortage with customers.
But the agency is still expected in Europe and the United States solar photovoltaic market long-term potential, but these areas of infrastructure projects, spend some time to launch incentives and license; for example in the United States, due to the government grants to some of the procedures, so solar market departure time may be a slight delay.